A small business in October may expect strong November sales and still struggle to pay a vendor. Invoices precede collection, customers have different terms, and a bank balance ignores the report's upward curve. Forecasting cash requires separating available money, open documents, and activity that has not occurred. Adding them indiscriminately often counts the same business twice.
Three questions, different figures
How much will we bill concerns future documents or estimated activity. How much might we collect also depends on outstanding balances and customer timing. How much cash will remain requires a verified opening balance, receipts, and outflows. None equals profit: accounting results recognize revenue, expenses, and cost of sales under their own criteria.
Tario distinguishes billing forecasts from cash projections. Billing examines documentary activity; cash projection separates open documents from future unbilled activity. The assistant should disclose what it knows and assumes about timing. Without evidence of opening cash, it can report estimated net change rather than inventing a closing balance. Keep that limitation visible.
An example avoiding double counting
Assume reconciled cash of CRC 1,000,000 and CRC 700,000 of receivables expected next month. Estimate another CRC 900,000 in new billing, of which CRC 400,000 may be collected during that month. Expected receipts are CRC 1,100,000 before risk review. Adding all future billing to collections from the same activity overstates inflows.
With estimated outflows of CRC 1,300,000, net change is negative CRC 200,000 and closing cash would be CRC 800,000. These are planning assumptions, not a promise. A delayed customer payment changes liquidity timing without changing sales. Preserve which figures came from documents, history, or explicitly chosen scenario assumptions.
Recurring invoices can overlap the baseline
A recurring schedule describes expected billing dates and amounts. If historical sales used in the estimate already contain that monthly contract, adding the full schedule duplicates it. Show recurrence separately and explain whether the baseline already covers it. Check end dates and generated documents too; an old schedule does not prove future payment.
Incomplete history requires disclosure. Missing data does not prove zero activity. A newly migrated company may have imported three months despite years of trading. Ask which observed months support the forecast and which are absent. The assistant can use the available sample, but the limitation should travel with the number into the meeting.
Currency, tax, and timing
Keep colones and dollars separate until supported exchange-rate evidence permits conversion. Check whether projected document totals include tax; they are not spending margin. Use the income statement for profitability and dates of obligations and expected receipts for payment planning. Timing is part of the calculation rather than a footnote.
Tario's cash forecast begins from the company's current date and looks forward. It should not be described as a reconstructed historical snapshot or statistical guarantee. Billing scenarios varying the remaining estimate by a fixed 20 percent are sensitivity tests. They are not calculated confidence intervals or probabilities of success.
Ask a more useful question
- Define company, currency, and horizon, such as the next two months.
- Separate open receivables and payables from activity that does not yet exist.
- Request evidence-based collection and payment dates with disclosed assumptions.
- Use a supported opening balance, or request net change only if it is unknown.
- Show a delayed-collection scenario and explain its effect on cash.
Open the largest balances before relying on the answer. Check partial payments, disputes, notes, and due dates. Add relevant decisions not represented by purchasing history, such as extraordinary commitments. A forecast uses available records and assumptions; it cannot discover agreements the team keeps outside the system.
Start with a short horizon and compare with treasury's current process. Each week record actual collections, payments, and changed assumptions. This improves the next scenario without turning estimates into facts. The practical outcome is knowing which upcoming commitments have support and which still depend on uncertain collection.